Interactive Energy Demand Analysis: A Case Study of Shanxi Province, PRC

Within the framework of collaboration between IIASA's Advanced Computer Applications project (ACA) and the State Science and Technology Commission of the People's Republic of China (SSTCC), ACA has developed an integrated set of information and decision support system for development planning in China. The system is implemented for a case study of Shanxi, a province in north central China, which is very rich in coal and several mineral resources, but is still at an early stage of development, lacking, for example, a well developed infrastructure, or sufficient water. The decision support system combines several data bases, simulation and optimization models, and AI components, in an easy-to-use Expert System framework. A graphical and largely symbolic user interface, relying exclusively on menu techniques and providing extensive help and explain functions, makes access to the system's functions easy for the planner and decision maker, who might have little or no computer experience. The system is designed to assist the five-year planning process in Shanxi Province, which, in the Chinese philosophy of integrated development, includes investment distribution, i.e. primarily economic, but also technological, resource, environmental, and socio-political considerations. The scope of the system, consequently, ranges from the macroeconomic level down to sectoral and more engineering-oriented models. The energy sector certainly plays one of the most important roles in Shanxi's economic development. Shanxi is China's power house: with annual coal production approaching 250 Mt, economic and industrial development is centered around the production and use of coal. In the Shanxi software system, modeling the energy demand (and also related investment, labor, and water requirements) of planned production schemes, or more generally, the economic and social development, is done with the help of the MAED-BI (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand in Basic Industries). While centered on heavy industry, the model has been extended to cover the full range of economic sectors for compatibility with the overall system. Connection to a relational data base management system for the definition of input scenaria, and an interactive, graphical user interface for the selective display of model results, are important features. The model was developed in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and is based on previous work done at IIASA's Energy Program. It is not only a valuable component in the overall software system, but also provides an example of the model-based decision support philosophy that is at the core of the overall project

MINE - A Game for the Analysis of Regional Water Policies in Open-Pit Lignite Mining Areas

The game MINE has been developed for the analysis of regional water policies in open-pit lignite mining areas. It is implemented for a GDR test area. The purpose of the game is above all to teach decision makers and their staff in mining regions in order to get a better understanding of the complex interrelated socio-economic processes with respect to water management in such regions. The game is designed to be played by five groups of players representing municipal and industrial water supply, agriculture, environmental protection and lignite mining. Two versions are available, one in BASIC for simple micro-computers as the Apple II combined with a gaming board, another one in FORTRAN for the VAX or ALTOS combined with sophisticated color graphics. The paper describes the game, its practical application and first experiences in playing the game

Knowledge-Based Systems. Overview and Selected Examples

The Advanced Computer Applications (ACA) project builds on IIASA's traditional strength in the methodological foundations of operations research and applied systems analysis, and its rich experience in numerous application areas including the environment, technology and risk. The ACA group draws on this infrastructure and combines it with elements of AI and advanced information and computer technology to create expert systems that have practical applications. By emphasizing a directly understandable problem representation, based on symbolic simulation and dynamic color graphics, and the user interface as a key element of interactive decision support systems, models of complex processes are made understandable and available to non-technical users. Several completely externally-funded research and development projects in the field of model-based decision support and applied Artificial Intelligence (AI) are currently under way, e.g., "Expert Systems for Integrated Development: A Case Study of Shanxi Province, The People's Republic of China." This paper gives an overview of some of the expert systems that have been considered, compared or assessed during the course of our research, and a brief introduction to some of our related in-house research topics

Interactive Energy Demand Analysis: The MAED-BI Model Application in the Shanxi Province, PRC

The decision support system described in this report combines several data bases, simulation and optimization models, and AI components, in an easy-to-use Expert System framework. A graphical and largely symbolic user interface, relying exclusively on menu techniques and providing help and explain functions, makes access to the system's functions easy for the planner and decision maker, who might have little or no computer experience. The system is designed to assist the five-year planning process in Shanxi Province, which in the Chinese philosophy of integrated development, includes investment distribution, i.e., primarily economic, but also technological, resource, environmental and socio-political considerations. The scope of the system ranges from the macroeconomic level down to sectoral and engineering-oriented models. Modeling in in the Shanxi software system is done with the help of the MAED-BI (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand in Basic Industries). This model, which centers on heavy industry, has been extended to cover the full range of economic sectors for compatibility with the overall system. Connection to a relational data base management system for the definition of input scenarios, and an interactive, graphical user interface for the selective display are important features of this model

Decision Support and Information Systems for Regional Development Planning

This report summarizes the results of a collaborative research and development project between IIASA's Advanced Computer Applications Project and the State Science and Technology Commission of the People's Republic of China. The project's objective was to build a computer-based information and decision support system for integrated regional development planning in Shanxi, a coal-rich province in northwestern China. The report describes the problem area, the approach to integrated development planning, the design principles of the software developments, and the status of the prototype system as it was implemented in Shanxi

Environmental software featuring interactive interfaces

With steady population growth and industrialization, human activities have increasingly affected the environment. Growing concern about these impacts and their immediate, as well as longterm consequences, including risk associated with technological systems and the inherent uncertainty of any forecast makes environmental planning and management, especially environmental impact assessment, a task of global importance that requires comprehensive, interdisciplinary Information. The volume and complexity of this information, uncertainty in the data and comprehension of the processes, as well as the often large number of alternatives to be considered, require specific data processing tools. The availability of affordable Computers, as well as new technologies such as expert systems, interactive modeling and dynamic Computer graphics, now make it possible for powerful, accessible, and general Software systems for environmental impact and risk assessment to be built. These systems are designed to provide planners and policy makers with direct and interactive access to a large volume of information in combination with methods of scientific analysis. To make such systems really usable, emphasis has to be put on the user interface, using components such as graphical and symbolic user interaction, graphical display of results that are dynamically or spatially distributed, integrated geographical information systems (GIS), or the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) components. Some basic principles such eis interaction and visualization are discussed, based on several application examples in the area of general environmental impact assessment, as well as surface and groundwater quality, air pollution and industrial risk assessment, developed and implemented by IIASA’s Advanced Computer Applications (ACA) group for planners, managers and decision makers

Computer‐Assisted Routing of Dangerous Goods for Haute‐Normandie

To assess the best routes for the transport of dangerous goods in an area of 600 kin-" in France. software based on a geographical information system was developed to manage, treat, and represent statistical and geographical data related to the evaluation of the risk of transport on a road network. The probability of an accident and release is derived from the links in a digitized network, provided by the lnstitut Géographique National (IGN) on a 1/50,000 scale, according to the links' characteristics. The active, student and nonactive population figures are from the 1982 census, and are distributed among categorized (i.e., urban, industrial) areas of administrative units called communes. The intersection of this population layout with an impact zone leads to a measure of the people exposed to damage. An impact zone is a corridor along a road; the diameter of the zone depends upon the nature and quantity of dangerous materials that are being transported. Multiplication of the accident probability by the number of people exposed gives an estimation of the relative risk, which is used to compare alternative routes so that the least risky route is chosen

Computer-assisted risk assessment of dangerous goods transportation for haute-normandie

To assess the 'best' routes for the transport of dangerous goods in an area of 600 km2 in France, software based on a geographical information system to manage, treat and represent statiscal and geographical data related to the evaluation of the risk of transport on a road network was developed. Probability of accident and release are attributed to arcs of the digitized network provided by IGN on a 1/50 000 scale, according to their characteritics. Active, scholar, and non-active population issued from the 1982 INSEE census, are distributed among categorized (urban, industrial...) areas of administrative units called 'communes'. The intersection of this population layout with an impact zone (a corridor along the road of which the width depends on the nature and quantity of the dangerous materials), leads to a measure of the exposed people to damage. Multiplication of the accident probability by exposed people gives an estimation of the relative risk used to compare alternative routes in order to choose the less risky route